The U.S. EIA report also projects parallel growth in generation, with the greatest growth on a proportional basis coming from the solar sector. All told, solar is expected to grow 21 percent in 2026 and 18 percent in 2027; wind generation will increase by 7 percent and 5 percent; and natural gas will increase by 2 percent and 1 percent.
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Despite the pause in data center grid connections inside Texas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the West South-Central region (that includes our state) should lead all other regions in short-term demand growth.
According to its federal agency — as noted in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook Report — the West South-Central region will account for about 20 percent of nationwide demand growth in 2026 and 40 percent in 2027.
Overall, the country will experience record electricity demand during this year and the next — a surge largely driven by data center consumption and increased manufacturing activity in the commercial and industrial sectors, according to the Sept. 9 report.
The agency forecasts electricity sales across the country to hit 4,135 billion kilowatt hours in 2026, up 2 percent from 2025, and 4,211 BkWh in 2027. Commercial sector sales will represent 63 percent and 56 percent of the increase in electricity sales during those years, respectively. Industrial sector sales will represent 22 percent and 36 percent.
The U.S. EIA report also projects parallel growth in generation, with the greatest growth on a proportional basis coming from the solar sector. All told, solar is expected to grow 21 percent in 2026 and 18 percent in 2027; wind generation will increase by 7 percent and 5 percent; and natural gas will increase by 2 percent and 1 percent.
The U.S. EIA said that the most solar growth is expected inside the ERCOT region, where a record 18 BkWh in new solar capacity is expected in 2026 and 20 BkWh in 2027.
Coal, meanwhile, continues its decline, with the U.S. EIA predicting that that generation sector to fall 8 percent in 2026 and 6 percent in 2027. The U.S. EIA said the decline as well as other factors should lead to a drop of CO2 emissions of 1.7 percent in 2026 and another slight drop in 2027. “Declines in both coal-related and petroleum-related emissions are expected to continue in 2027 but are offset by rising natural gas-related emissions, largely in the form of natural gas-fired electricity generation,” EIA said.