The grid should have no problems meeting energy demand if conditions remain normal in March — which is likely.
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Despite the warmer weather, ERCOT faces a slight risk of issuing an emergency alert during the first month of spring, according to a new report.
However, the grid operator said it should have no problems meeting demand if grid conditions remain normal. And the grid faces a 98.6 percent chance or better of normal conditions during every hour that month, according to the report.
Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy Report
Those are some of the projections included in ERCOT’s most recent “Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy” report, or “MORA”, which projects Texas power grid conditions two months forward. The most recent MORA was released in January and shows figures for March.
In general terms, the MORA quantifies hour-by-hour risks that could prompt ERCOT to call an “Energy Emergency Alert,” or EEA. There are three possible levels of such alerts, including those requiring electricity conservation efforts or— in extreme cases — controlled rolling outages.
“The report indicates a slight risk of ERCOT issuing an Energy Emergency Alert during early morning and late evening hours (when solar generation is offline) due to higher demand, lower temperatures, and planned thermal maintenance outages,” ERCOT stated in an online post accompanying the most recent MORA.
However, “under normal conditions, ERCOT anticipates sufficient generation to meet customer demand,” the grid operator stated.
The new MORA also shows that ERCOT should have 77,763 megawatts of total generation resources on hand during that hour in March with the highest reserve shortage risk, assuming the grid faces normal conditions then.
Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report
MORA replaces the earlier “Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy” reports that ERCOT released four times annually prior to 2023. MORA also is among several reports that ERCOT issues regularly to keep tabs on the grid. Another is the CDR, or “Capacity, Demand and Reserves” report, released twice every year by ERCOT. Unlike the more short-term MORA, CDR reports summarize outcomes over a five-year time horizon.
CDRs forecast energy load (i.e., demand) and available resources on the system. It also calculates “Planning Reserve Margins,” which are derived by comparing available generation capacity on the grid in excess of the peak amount of load on the grid. The Planning Reserve Margin is expressed as a percentage, with higher percentages indicating higher amounts of surplus power available on the system and negative percentages indicating generation deficits — a situation that could lead to rolling outages. Historically, the planning reserve “target” for ERCOT has been 13.75 percent.
Issued on Dec. 19, 2025, the most recent CDR forecast an 18.3 percent Planning Reserve Margin during the summer peak in 2026 and 11.4 percent the following year. Those summer Planning Reserve Margins are then projected to enter into negative territory in subsequent years, with the report showing a negative 1.3 percent Planning Reserve Margin in 2028, negative 5.8 percent in 2029, and negative 12.7 percent in 2030.
As for winter peak, the CDR shows a 22.1 percent Planning Reserve Margin for winter 2026-2027, a 4.3 percent margin in winter 2027-2028, and then negative margins thereafter through 2030-2031.
However, the CDR also includes three alternative projections that result in less dire outcomes. These alternative scenarios take into account the potential effects of recent legislative changes intended to shore up ERCOT’s reserve margins. This includes a law relating to ERCOT’s control over new data center output during emergencies and other laws relating to the multi-billion-dollar Texas Energy Fund that promotes dispatchable generation construction.
Under these alternative scenarios, planning reserves never dip below 13.9 percent during summer peaks across the study period — that is, between 2026 and 2030 — and never dip below 9.6 percent during winter peaks over those same five years.